Seeking Wisdom: From Darwin to Munger, 3rd Edition. Peter Bevelin Seeking. ayofoto.info ISBN: Derek Sivers: A great overview of the lessons of Charlie Munger (partner of Warren Buffett) - and his approach to Seeking Wisdom - by Peter Bevelin .. Darwin Have to have some idea of why you're looking for information. Seeking Wisdom book. Read reviews from the world's largest community for readers. Peter Bevelin begins his fascinating book with Confucius' great wis.
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reference is made to ayofoto.info i. Bevelin, Peter – Seeking Wisdom: From Darwin to Munger. Post Scriptum AB, (3rd ed.). Peter Bevelin begins his fascinating book with Confucius' great wisdom: "A man who has committed a mistake and doesn't correct it, is committing another mistake." Seeking Wisdom is the result of Bevelin's learning about attaining wisdom. His quest for wisdom originated partly from. Seeking Wisdom: From Darwin to Munger, 3rd Edition Peter Bevelin ebook. Page : 0. ISBN: Publisher: PCA Publications L.L.C.. Format: pdf.
Multiple links and failure points due to interdependencies; lead domino; why we are almost certain to have a nuclear attack one day - Coincidences and miracles: Experiments show that when we are successful independent by chance or not , we credit our own character or ability. When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for poor fundamental economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact. His quest for wisdom originated partly from making mistakes himself and observing those of others but also from the philosophy of super-i Peter Bevelin begins his fascinating book with Confucius' great wisdom: The more public a decision is, the less likely it is that we will change it.
Bias from anchoring - over-weighing certain initial information as a reference point for future decisions. Over-influence by vivid or the most recent information. Back up vivid stories with facts and numbers. Omission and abstract blindness - only seeing stimuli we encounter or that grabs our attention, and neglecting important missing information or the abstract.
Includes inattentional blindness. Today 14 million people didn't win the lottery. We don't see the quiet losers. We don't see those who didn't predict well. Missing information doesn't draw our attention. Bias from reciprocation tendency - repaying in kind what others have done for or to us like favors, concessions, information and attitudes.
Our managers are independently wealthy. They don't need to get up and go to work at all. So I've got to create an environment where they thing they want to do most in the world is go to work. What would make me feel that way? People don't want to feel indebted. Allow people to give back what we've given them.
Bias from over-influence by liking tendency - believing, trusting and agreeing with people we know and like. Includes bias from over-desire for liking and social acceptance and for avoiding social disapproval. Also bias from disliking - our tendency to avoid and disagree with people we don't like. Talk to a man about himself and he will listen for hours. Bias from over-influence by social proof - imitating the behavior of many others or similar others.
Includes crowd folly. When all are accountable, no one is accountable. Bias from over-influence by authority - trusting and obeying a perceived authority or expert.
After the break-in at John's office, he said: Sensemaking - Constructing explanations that fit an outcome. Includes being too quick in drawing conclusions. Also thinking events that have happened were more predictable than they were. Everything seems stupid when it fails. In hindsight, everything seems obvious.
Look at earlier decisions in the context of their own time. If our predictions have been a little better than other people's, it's because we've tried to make fewer of them. Reason-respecting - complying with requests merely because we've been given a reason. Includes underestimating the power in giving people reasons. If you always tell people why, they'll understand it better, they'll consider it more important, and they'll be more likely to comply.
You cannot reason a person out of a position he did not reason himself into in the first place. People are more moved by what they feel than by what they understand. Believing first and doubting later - believing what is not true, especially when distracted.
Memory limitations - remembering selectively and wrong. Includes influence by suggestions. Do-something syndrome - acting without a sensible reason. Man finds nothing so intolerable as to be in a state of complete rest, without passions, without occupation, without diversion, without effort.
Mental confusion from say-something syndrome - feeling a need to say something when we have nothing to say. I have often regretted my speech, never my silence. Emotional arousal- making hasty judgments under the influence of intense emotions. Includes exaggerating the emotional impact of future events. Mental confusion from stress. I have no stress whatsoever - zero. I get to do what I love to do every day. I'm surrounded by people that are terrific.
We don't have regular staff meetings. If you've got good businesses and the right managers, you don't need that sort of thing.
It is not stress that harms us but distress. Complete freedom from stress is death. Mental confusion from physical or psychological pain, the influence of chemicals or diseases. Bias from over-influence by the combined effect of many psychological tendencies operating together. Once they start stealing, the consistency principle will make stealing habitual. It's very very important to create human systems that are hard to cheat.
You can learn to make fewer mistakes than other people - and how to fix your mistakes faster when you do make them.
Get so you can handle mistakes. People go broke because they can't stop, rethink and say, "I can afford to write this one off and live to fight again. I don't have to pursue this thing as an obsession.
I now use a two-track analysis: One approach is rationality. Evaluating the real interests, the real probabilities. The other is to evaluate the psychological factors that cause subconscious conclusions - many of which are wrong. Take all the main models from psychology and use them as a checklist in reviewing outcomes in complex systems. Includes failing to consider secondary and higher order consequences and inevitable implications.
By solving one problem, we generate another one and sometimes create an even worse one. Try to optimize the whole and not a system's individual parts. What you won was the right to pay more for something than everyone else thought it was worth. The other party is most likely to accept our offer when it is least favorable to us.
Nobody can forecast interest or currency rates, the GDP, turning points in the economy, the stock market, etc. Massive amounts of information don't help. In some businesses, things cascade toward the overwhelming dominance of one firm - to a winner-take-all situation.
Warren Buffett says: How do we allocate our time, work, attention and money? Can we identify the few things that really matter? Includes failing to consider that many effects may originate from one common root cause. Includes identifying the wrong cause because it seems the obvious one based on a single observed effect.
Also failing to consider information or evidence that is missing. There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact. Obviousness is always the enemy to correctness. Includes not using basic math to count and quantity. Also not differentiating between relative and absolute risk. Includes underestimating the probability and severity of rare or extreme events.
Most people think dramatically, not quantitatively. If we get a once in year storm this year, another big one could happen next year. There is no memory of the past. People were more reluctant to give up a lottery ticket they had chosen themselves, than one selected at random for them.
The lesson is, if you want to sell lottery tickets, let people choose their own numbers instead of randomly drawing them. We should never risk something we have and need for something we don't need.
You only have to get rich once. The added money has no utility whatsoever. Also underestimating opportunities for failure and what normally happens in similar situations.
It's not that easy to make lots of money in a business in a capitalistic society. There are people that are looking at what you're doing every day and trying to figure out a way to do it better, underprice you, bring out a better product or whatever it may be. Includes failing to consider that time horizon changes probabilities. Size of factor depends on the consequences of failure, how well the risks are understood, systems characteristics and degree of control.
Simplify and standardize processes, and use checklists to decrease the likelihood of operator errors. The most astonishingly incredible coincidence imaginable would be the complete absence of all coincidences. We pay no attention to times when nothing happens. We shouldn't find significance in amazing past events.
It's easy to be a prophet. You make twenty-five predictions and the ones that come true are the ones you talk about. Nobody keeps a record of their erroneous prophecies since they are infinite and everyday. If the opposite of a given statement is more I likely, the statement is probably false.
Mysteries are not necessarily miracles. Includes failing to consider the probability of a random matth, and the probability of a false positive and false negative. Also failing to consider a relevant comparison population that bears the characteristic we are seeking. Includes not searching for explanations to why past outcome happened, what is required to make past record continue, and what forces can change it.
If you could make money based on what has worked the past 20 years, all of the richest people would be librarians. The man who fed the chicken every day wrings its neck instead. The past is a good guide to the future - but not always.
We'd rather be roughly right than precisely wrong. In other words, if something is terribly important, we'll guess at it rather than just make our judgment based on what happens to be easily countable.
No victor believes in chance. We give too little attention to failures. Do that with discipline, its likely to work out quite well. Models of reality Developing the habit of mastering the multiple models which underlie reality is the best thing you can do..
It's just so much fun - and it works so well. What is the underlying big idea? Do I understand its application in practical life? Does it help me understand the world?
How does it work? Why does it work? Under what conditions does it work? How reliable is it? What are its limitations? How does it relate to other models?
Disney is an amazing example of autocatalysis. They had all those movies, owned the copyright. When the videocassette was invented, Disney didn't have to invent anything or do anything except take the thing out of the can and stick it on the cassette. The models that come from hard science and engineering are the most reliable. The engineering idea of a backup system, of breakpoints, of critical mass.
A model should be easy to use. If it is complicated, we don't use it. It is useful on a nearly daily basis. If it is not used, we forget it We need to understand and use the big ideas from all the important disciplines - mathematics, physics, chemistry, engineering, biology, psychology.
If you don't have the full repertoire of models, you'll overutilize the limited repertoire you have - including use of models that are inappropriate just because they're available to you in the limited stock you have in mind.
Have a full kit of tools. Go through them in your mind checklist-style. You must have he models and you must see the relatedness and the effects from the relatedness.
Find connections between ideas. Derive new ideas from these connections. Combine ideas from different disciplines. The ideas of scaling from mathematics, systems and constraints from physics, and competitive advantage from microeconomics often explain how business value is created or destroyed.
Find similarities or functional equivalents within or between disciplines. The functional equivalent of viscosity from chemistry is stickiness in economics. Short sentences stick in our memory. What sentence contains the most information in the fewest words?
Meaning Bad terminology is the enemy of good thinking. To understand meaning, ask basic questions: Meaning of words: What do the words mean? What do they imply? Do they Anything? Can we translate words, ideas or statements into an ordinary n that tells us something? An expression is always relative. We have to 1d measure it against something. Meaning of an event: What effect is produced? What is really happening using T words?
What is it doing?
What is accomplished? Under what Ins does it happen? What else does it mean? What is happening here and why?
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Hardcover , pages. Published by Post Scriptum AB first published More Details Original Title. Other Editions 3. Friend Reviews. To see what your friends thought of this book, please sign up. To ask other readers questions about Seeking Wisdom , please sign up. Lists with This Book. Community Reviews. Showing Rating details. Sort order. Jul 26, Ted Trembinski rated it it was ok Shelves: To start off, I think this book contains some really interesting and useful information. Let me break it down for you.
Part One: What Influences Our Thinking. This is essentially a quick wrap up of evolutionary psychology. The supporting examples and case studies are explained more thoroughly. Part Two: The Psychology of Misjudgments. This is just Psychology of Business. Behavior Ec To start off, I think this book contains some really interesting and useful information. Behavior Economics? Just read Influence by Robert Cialdini http: Part Three: The Physics and Mathematics of Misjudgments. What do you get when you apply not psychology, but mathematics to human choice?
Sounds like economics to me. Of course, when you breeze over that much information, it makes it hard to absorb, or even comprehend. Part Four: Guidelines to Better Thinking. Honestly, this is the only section that didn't make me point to another source.
I thought it was just general advice on better living, but like the rest of the book kind of wandered and wasn't really tied together in a meaningful way. Lots of block quotes from Munger and Buffett and many inline quotes from everyone else. This whole book is littered with quotes.
It was not uncommon to see two or three quotes back to back, with authors ranging from writers, to historical figures, to politicians.
Of course Darwin is frequently referenced, but in round about ways.
Many were loosely tied to the subject at hand, but they came across as just filler and padding for weakly established points. I found the appendices notable. I got the same feeling I got when I read a book by a magazine columnist - I would recommend the short over the long. Checklists turned out to be notes I would have taken if I had taken notes. Key words and phrases; again a refining of the book's information. Wisdom from Munger and Buffett was just more block quotes. I could have seen it as "inspiration for the book".
Probability was a math appendix. I honestly hate when math is pushed to the back of the book. I am under the strong persuasion that math is not optional. Unfortunately, those ideas are obstructed and disorganized. Instead of using Munger's ideas as a smooth progression, this book is a meandering stroll through several fascinating topics. I would say blame the editing, but that point to the fact that this is the third edition.
If you've never heard of any of the above stuff, maybe you should check this out. I could definitely see it being a bathroom reader. Otherwise, check the books I recommended above. View 1 comment. Dec 10, R rated it it was amazing. I give this book 5 stars not because this is one of the best books I have read but because this is one of the best summary of ideas I ingested in last 2 years. I don't know how a casual reader with no prior exposure to topics covered in the book would ingest the densely packed material but if you are an ardent reader in topics such as decision science, finance and probability this book is nothing but a collection of ideas from these areas.
If you have read ' The Drunkard's Walk: In rare cases, if you have read books such as ' The Mind of the Market: If you have read all the stuff mentioned above, this book is a good refresher of important concepts. If you haven't read the books mentioned above, this book may be nothing more than a text scratching the surface of tons of concepts. On that note, the book somehow is self contradictory where it talks about seeking wisdom but does exactly what prevents us from seeking it, i.
Jan 21, Drew Johnson rated it really liked it. More a compiliation of Buffet and Munger's words of wisdom than a book. As compiliations go, its pretty good. Some of my favorites: Beliefs have biological consequences Fear of loss is greater than the desire for gain Our brain operates more on pattern recognition than logic Cost of doing nothing can be greater than the cost of an action Nothing will ever be attempted if all possible objections must first be overcome Human beings are good at interpreting new information so that prior conclusions remai More a compiliation of Buffet and Munger's words of wisdom than a book.
Beliefs have biological consequences Fear of loss is greater than the desire for gain Our brain operates more on pattern recognition than logic Cost of doing nothing can be greater than the cost of an action Nothing will ever be attempted if all possible objections must first be overcome Human beings are good at interpreting new information so that prior conclusions remain intact Need to focus on the will to find out more than the will to believe We overestimate the degree of control we have over events and underestimate chance Goal is to make fewer mistakes than others and fix them faster I have often regreted my speech but rarely my silence Pascal's Wager: If I won I would have gained eternal life.
You tend to forget mistakes when reputation is threatened by remembering. Eternel verities of the basics: The brain can be developed the same way as the muscles can be developed He is a great benefactor of mankind who contracts the great rules of life into short sentance that may be easily impressed on the memorary I forget what I hear, I remember what i see and i know what i do If you can't explain it simply, you don't know it well The harder you work the more confidence you get but you may be working hard on something that is false.
Being wise is knowing what to overlook 4 Filters for investing: May 31, Stephen Hultquist rated it really liked it. This is a very challenging read. It is dense, with vitally important insights packed on every page. How can we think clearly? Where do we find wisdom? Why do we trick ourselves?
All these questions and more are answered in these pages But, the book is organized so that you go through the steps of uncovering the mental processes first. It can be a slog at times, with so much learning when I just want to get to the "so how then do I live?
That said, I think everyone with sufficient intell This is a very challenging read. That said, I think everyone with sufficient intelligence should read this book. It takes a certain intelligence to be able to read it at all, but if you can follow it, it will change your life. Dec 03, Marcus rated it it was ok Shelves: This felt like an information dump to me. There's a lot of value, but it's heavily condensed and anecdotal making it really difficult to come away with anything that couldn't be better learned by reading it straight from Munger or Buffett or any of the other sources that are so heavily quoted.
Jan 20, Olivier Goetgeluck rated it it was amazing. An understanding of how and why we can "die" should help us to avoid them. The best way to learn what, how and why things work is to learn from others.
I don't believe in just sitting down and trying to dream it all up yourself. Nobody's that smart. Experiences produce changes in the brain either through new neural connections or through the generation of new neurons. Studies suggest that the brain can change even during the course of a day.
Experiences are the reasons that all individuals are unique. There are no individuals with exactly the same upbringing, nutrition, education, social stamping, physical, social and cultural setting. This creates different convictions, habits, values and character. People behave differently because differences in their environtment cause different life experiences.
This is why it is sometimes hard to understand other people's behavior. To do that, we must adapt to their environment and share their experiences. Consideration "Our life is what our thoughts make it.
Studies show that a placebo can improve a patient's condition simply because the patient expects it will work. Clinical evidence shows placebos to have physical effects on the brain, just as drugs do.
Studies in Sweden show a placebo activates the same brain circuits as painkilling drugs. If people expect something to go wrong with their health, it often does. Negative expectations can influence our bodies and cause symptoms that over time may cause our body harm. Beliefs have biological consequences - good and bad. Align them with your goals. If we compress 4 million years into 24 hours, and if the history of humans began at midnight, agriculture made its appearance on the scene 23 hours and 55 minutes later.
Only behavior that is selfish or for the mutual good is in an individual's self-interest and therefore favored by natural selection. Some behavior may under certain conditions look like altruism but can often be explained by self-benefit. Social recognition, prestige, fear of social disapproval, shame, relief from distress, avoidance of guilt, a better after-life or social expectations are some reasons behind "altruistic" acts.
It activates hormones like adrenaline and cortisol, which keeps us attentive to harm since we need full attention to escape from a threat. The degree of fear we feel depends on our interpretation of the threat and our perception of control. What we fear and the strength of our reaction depends on our genes, life experiences, and the specific situation. You may react instinctively at first, but if the situation is one that you've experienced before since our brain is continuously "rewired" with life experiences , the final reaction may be to calm down.
The more we are exposed to a stimulus, even a terrifying one, the higher our threshold of fear becomes. Emerson; to get used to the 'fearful' situation To learn what works and does not or what is good or bad for us means we have to explore.
Recent studies suggest that the brain responds to novelty. For example, many animals, for foraging, start with a random search, and only change their behavior when they find a rewarding stimulus. Then they move towards it. Then do more of it. Finding new ways to deal with the world is superior to overtraining old patterns. Studies suggest that we learn better when we mix new information with what we already know.
Male brain vs female brain The brain exists to make better decisions about how to enhance reproductive success.
Reproduction is the central act in the life of every living thing. It is a natural tendency to act on impulse - to use emotions before reason. The behavior that was critical for survival and reproduction in our evolutionary history still applies today. Cultural evolution vs genetic evolution Cultural evolution is faster than genetic evolution since it allows much of what we learn to be passed on and combined with what others around us have learned.
Unlike biological evolution, cultural evolution is not inherited. We don't inherit our parents' habit. We learn from them. Habits you can develop. Mere Association We move towards stimuli we associate with pleasure an away from those we associate with pain. We tend to dislike people who tell us what we don't want to hear even when they didn't cause the bad news, i.
This gives people an incentive to avoid giving bad news. Individuals are neither good nor bad merely because we associate them with something positive or negative.
Encourage people to tell you bad news immediately. Past experiences are often context dependent. Create a negative emotion if you want to end a certain behavior. If you want someone to stop smoking, one way could be to show them what they stand to lose. Reward And Punishment "The iron rule of nature is: If you want ants to come, you put sugar on the floor.
Give they something undesirable or take away whay they desire and their behavior will stop. In the beginning, rewarding or punishing is most effective when it is administered without delay and each time the behavior is repeated.
Once behavior becomes learned, variable rewards strengthen the behavior. After a failure, we become overly pessimistic and risk-averse. Good consequences don't necessarily mean we made a good decision, and bad consequences don't necessarily mean we made a bad decision. This automatic association to what worked in the past causes people to under-react to new condition and circumstances.
Praise is more effective in changing behavior than punishment. It is better to encourage what is right than to criticize what is wrong. Set examples: Goals should be: Reward people after and not before performance.
Don't let money be the only motivation. If we reward people for doing what they like to do anyway, we sometimes turn what they enjoy doing into work. The reward changes their perception.
The key is what a reward implies. A reward for our achievements makes us feel that we are good at something thereby increasing our motivation. But a reward that feels controlling and makes us feel that we are only doing it because we're paid to do it, decreases the appeal.